808s / Grammys

Grammy Awards 2022: Nomination Predictions

Rather than create a Twitter thread this year, I thought it best to collate my Grammy Awards 2022 predictions here where I have written thousands of words about this award show before. There’s some commentary with some of the categories, but don’t be expecting much of this to be at all accurate, my track record is pretty poor with predicting the nominations.

General Field

Record of the Year

Butter – BTS
Kiss Me More – Doja Cat & SZA
Happier Than Ever – Billie Eilish
Stay – The Kid LAROI & Justin Bieber
Montero (Call Me By Your Name) – Lil Nas X
Driver’s Licence – Olivia Rodrigo
Bad Habits – Ed Sheeran
Leave The Door Open – Silk Sonic

(Alternatives: Mood (Live) – 24kGoldn (Feat. Iann Dior), I Get A Kick Out Of You – Tony Bennett & Lady Gaga, Heat Waves (Live) – Glass Animals)

Song of the Year

Lonely – Justin Bieber & Benny Blanco
Kiss Me More – Doja Cat & SZA
Happier Than Ever – Billie Eilish
Montero (Call Me By Your Name) – Lil Nas X
Driver’s Licence – Olivia Rodrigo
Leave The Door Open – Silk Sonic
Pick Up Your Feelings – Jazmine Sullivan
Willow – Taylor Swift

(Alternatives: Fight For You – H.E.R., Heartbreak Anniversary – GIVEON, 29 – Carly Pearce)

There’s 3 dead certs in both of these categories, Olivia, Billie and Silk Sonic are absolutely going to be competing in both big song category. Outside of that, I think we could see quite a split in the songs that make it in each category. Never rule of Taylor in a vote, while Lil Nas X should definitely make it into ROTY as well. I’m interested to see whether the Live tag on Mood and Heat Waves prevents two massive hit songs from making it into the big 4 this year.

Best New Artist

Jimmie Allen
Celeste
Clairo
The Kid LAROI
Arlo Parks
Polo G
Olivia Rodrigo
Saweetie

(Alternatives: FINNEAS, Maneskin, Tate McRae)

Could go either way this year, there’s probably 4 locks for this category, Olivia, Kid LAROI, Saweetie and Arlo Parks, but outside of that I’m curious to see if we get way more Hip Hop nominees than I’m predicting. In the end though FINNEAS being eligible and submitting for this category after winning nearly 10 Grammys is a mess and he absolutely should not be allowed to be nominated.

Album of the Year

Love For Sale – Tony Bennett & Lady Gaga
JUSTICE – Justin Bieber
Planet Her (Deluxe) – Doja Cat
Happier Than Ever – Billie Eilish
Back of My Mind – H.E.R.
SOUR – Olivia Rodrigo
Starting Over – Chris Stapleton
evermore – Taylor Swift

(Alternatives: Inside (The Songs) – Bo Burnam, MONTERO – Lil Nas X, Heaux Tales – Jazmine Sullivan)

Some familiar names above, 6/8 of my picks have been nominated for Album of the Year before, 3 of which have won the award. I can’t imagine the voters going for some of the more left field nominees we’ve seen in recent years now that the selection panels are gone, but keep an eye on Bo Burnam and Kacey Musgraves potentially getting more buzz here after their albums were moves around the genre categories at the behest of their teams. Do not underestimate Tony and Gaga this year, if anyone is going to unexpectedly dominate the vote in these categories it’s them.

Pop Field

Best Pop Solo Performance

Happier Than Ever – Billie Eilish
Positions – Ariana Grande
Montero (Call Me By Your Name) – Lil Nas X
Driver’s Licence – Olivia Rodrigo
Bad Habits – Ed Sheeran

(Alternatives: Anyone – Justin Bieber, Let’s Do It – Lady Gaga, Willow – Taylor Swift)

Best Pop Duo/Group Performance

I Get A Kick Out Of You – Tony Bennett & Lady Gaga
Lonely – Justin Bieber & Benny Blanco
Butter – BTS
Kiss Me More – Doja Cat & SZA
Without You – The Kid LAROI (Feat. Miley Cyrus)

(Alternatives: Higher Power – Coldplay, Heat Waves (Live) – Glass Animals, Lo Vas A Olivader – ROSALIA & Billie Eilish)

Best Pop Vocal Album

Justice – Justin Bieber
Planet Her (Deluxe) – Doja Cat
Happier Than Ever – Billie Eilish
SOUR – Olivia Rodrigo
evermore – Taylor Swift

(Alternatives: Positions – Ariana Grande, MONTERO – Lil Nas X)

Pop categories in 2022 are going to be stacked with huge names, Taylor, Ariana, Ed, Billie, Justin are all proven to be loved by the voters so they could quite easily nab all of the nominations for some of the newer acts here. Doja Cat, Olivia Rodrigo, Lil Nas X and BTS should all appear here, but there could be a shock exclusion among them. The baffling decision to not submit monster hit Stay in Pop/Duo Performance and instead go with the Miley version of Without You has all but sealed the fate that Kid LAROI will miss out on the one Grammy he probably had to lose, but we’ve seen crazy things happen in these categories before.

Alternative/Rock Field

Best Alternative Album

How Long Do You Think It’s Gonna Last – Big Red Machine
For The First Time – Black Country New Road
If I Can’t Have Love, I Want Power – Halsey
Collapsed In Sumbeams – Arlo Parks
Daddy’s Home – St Vincent

(Alternatives: Shore – Fleet Foxes, Songs – Adrienne Lenker, Changephobia – Rostam)

Best Rock Album

Power Up – AC/DC
Plastic Hearts – Miley Cyrus
Medicine After Midnight – Foo Fighters
Sob Rock – John Mayer
Blue Weekend – Wolf Alice

(Alternatives: Ultra Mono – Idles, When You See Yourself – Kings of Leon, Drunk Tank Pink – Shame)

Best Rock Performance

Shame Shame – Foo Fighters
You’ll Never Walk Alone – Brittany Howard
Beggin’ (Live) – Maneskin
Pay Your Way In Pain – St. Vincent
Smile – Wolf Alice

(Alternatives: Crawling Kingsnake – The Black Keys, Nothing Else Matters – Miley Cyrus feat. WATT, Elton John, Yo-Yo Ma, Robert Trujillo & Chad Smith, Transparent Soul – WILLOW feat. Travis Barker)

The big question in the Rock categories is what will happen with Miley Cyrus successfully submitting the album of her career to the Rock category instead of Pop. I’m undecided whether I think this will help or harm her chances, but the stacked Pop field may have been just out of reach. She will appear in one of these categories, most likely for the album itself. Wolf Alice have to be a big favourite for this category too, they’ve had just one Grammy nomination before now.

Alternative album feels less stacked this year, many of the potential submissions have opted for Pop, Rock or Dance instead so I think the way is clear for St Vincent to win this come February, even if everyone seems to have forgotten about Daddy’s Home by this point.

Country Field

Best Country Solo Performance

Forever After All – Luke Combs
Fancy Like – Walker Hayes
camera roll – Kacey Musgraves
29 – Carly Pearce
You Should Probably Leave – Chris Stapleton

(Alternatives: The Good Ones – Gabby Barret, Hell of a View – Eric Church, Sand In My Boots – Morgan Wallen)

Best Country Duo/Group Performance

If I Didn’t Love You – Jason Aldean & Carrie Underwood
Half of My Hometown – Kelsea Ballerini (Feat. Kenny Chesney)
Drunk (And I Don’t Wanna Go Home) – Elle King & Miranda Lambert
Wine, Beer, Whiskey – Little Big Town
Glad You Exist – Dan + Shay

(Alternatives: Chasing After You – Ryan Hurd & Maren Morris, One Too Many – Keith Urban (Feat. P!nk), Famous Friends – Chris Young & Kane Brown)

Best Country Song

Hell of a View – Eric Church
Forever After All – Luke Combs
Drunk (And I Don’t Wanna Go Home) – Elle King & Miranda Lambert
29 – Carly Pearce
Cold – Chris Stapleton

(Alternatives: If I Didn’t Love You – Jason Aldean & Carrie Underwood, Glad You Exist – Dan + Shay, camera roll – Kacey Musgraves)

Best Country Album

Skeletons – Brothers Osborne
Remember The Name – Mickey Guyton
29: Written In Stone – Carly Pearce
Starting Over – Chris Stapleton
Dangerous: The Double Album – Morgan Wallen

(Alternatives: Soul – Eric Church, The Marfa Tapes – Miranda Lambert, Jack Ingham & Jon Randall, The Last Resort – Midland)

A year where we were set to have two Grammy darlings, Kacey Musgraves and Chris Stapleton against each other in these categories once more has been dashed by the move of Star-Crossed into the Pop Vocal Album category. It all but leaves the door open for another Stapleton sweep for his genuinely excellent Starting Over record. Never bet against Carrie Underwood or Dan + Shay in a popular vote for a nomination, the latter looking to continue their run of winning Duo/Group 3 times in a row.

The big question will be if Morgan Wallen ends up in contetion. The Grammys haven’t said anything about him not being included, so expect to see him in Album at the least. He could easily sweep all of these categories if enough support gets behind him. I’m rooting for Carly Pearce to way overperform for her fantastic 29 song and album following her CMA win, while I have a feeling there will be lots of support for Mickey Guyton and Kelsea Ballerini too.

That’s where I leaving it this year for Predictions, there’s too little information about the specific submissions for the Rap field to even begin to start with that, but I’m expecting the likes of Drake, Kanye and Megan to clear up here.

Lets see how accurate I am when the Nominations are announced on Tuesday, I’m fully expecting me to be completely wrong as usual.

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